How to Stream a Fantasy Football Kicker (Part 1 of 3)

Before You Begin

Before diving in, I highly recommend reading my 2013 post, Using the Science of Statistics to Select a Fantasy Kicker. That earlier article lays the groundwork for what follows here, so even though this post is titled “Part 1,” it’s really the second step in the series. You can click the blue button below to check out the 2013 post before continuing.

How to Stream a Fantasy Football Kicker (Part 1)

The place kicker position is one of the most overlooked spots in fantasy football, but it doesn’t have to be. With a little strategy, it can become a consistent difference-maker each week. This post (the first of three) explains how to gain an edge by streaming kickers using Las Vegas odds to predict which kickers will score the most points, rather than relying on traditional rankings that are skewed by taking into account factors like leg strength or accuracy.

Most fantasy owners treat kickers as an afterthought, drafting them late and rarely making changes. Even if predicting kicker performance seems confusing, there’s still a smart way to do it. Ignoring the position is a strategy destined to fail.

Other fantasy owners may take an even worse approach. Fearing they might miss out on a good kicker, they draft one far too early, using valuable early picks on a kicker at the expense of talent in other important positions.

Unfortunately, you can’t rely on cheat sheets or “expert” rankings, either, since they almost always incorporate factors into their rankings that (surprisingly) don’t matter for fantasy, even though it seems like they should, such as a kicker’s long leg or accuracy. While those traits are important for NFL teams, they’re poor predictors of fantasy performance. As I explained in my 2013 post, the strongest indicator of a successful fantasy kicker is simple: he plays for a team that scores a lot of points.

If you agree with my premise – and yes, I’m shamelessly confident here – that the best fantasy kickers play for high-scoring teams, you might be tempted to rely on a team’s past point totals when selecting a kicker. A smarter approach is to predict their upcoming scoring potential – and that’s where Las Vegas odds come in. Oddsmakers use massive datasets, advanced models, and real-time betting markets to set their lines. It’s nearly impossible to out-predict them, making their data an invaluable tool for fantasy owners.

I’ve used Vegas odds for years to choose my weekly kickers, and I’ve been very happy with the results. It also adds excitement to the weekly add/drop process – like a mini-draft every week. Since most owners overlook kickers or don’t understand their true fantasy value, it’s often easy to land one of the top options each week (based on this system) with little competition.

Here’s how it works: Suppose the Colts are favored by 14.5 over the Titans, with an over/under of 48.0. Half the spread is 7.25, and half the over/under is 24.0. Add those together to get the favorite’s projected points – in this case, Vegas expects the Colts to score about 31.25. For the underdog, subtract the first number from the second. That gives the Titans about 16.75 projected points, making the Colts’ kicker the better fantasy play.

That’s the foundation of my system: simple math guided by Vegas data.

Now, I realize that manually calculating all the available fantasy kickers’ rankings using this system can be time-consuming, but I’ve developed methods to speed things up. In the next post, I’ll show how to streamline the process using Excel to quickly identify the best kicker candidates each week. A third post will follow, demonstrating how to take it even further by using AI to automate the analysis.

Stay tuned – your kicker spot is about to get a serious upgrade.

Click the blue button below to proceed to How to Stream a Fantasy Kicker (Part 2 of 3).