Although I have to tuck tail and admit that Football Weblog’s cheatsheet algorithm — used to fine-tune the accuracy of our cheatsheets — is not likely to supplant professional handicapping any time soon, I walk away content knowing that the process put up a good dog fight.
During the course of the regular season, Football Weblog’s picks matched or exceeded Sin City’s handicapping totals in 10 of 16 weeks. In fact, we enjoyed a 3 game advantage at mid-season. Alas, Football Weblog’s theorem fell especially apart in week 17 because the calculations do not take into account that some NFL teams rest their starters in preparation for a playoff run. I noted this reservation last week, but chose to plod forward anyway.
So how much fight was in Football Weblog’s dog? We finished with 158 correct picks (.655). Las Vegas handicappers ended the season with 163 correct picks (.676). The following graph shows how the skirmish played out week-by-week.
So that will do it for this season’s NFL Power Rankings and Picks. Thanks for following along.
As always, run to daylight!