2014 Preseason Kicker Cheatsheet

If you’ve been a reader of Football Weblog for a while, you already know that we provide the most accurate fantasy football kicker rankings found anywhere.  We’ve shown through regression analysis that a kicker’s accuracy or his ability to kick long-range field goals have little bearing on his propensity to score points.  The key to finding the highest scoring fantasy football kickers hinges on identifying kickers that hail from teams that score the most points and win the most games.  (See “Using the Science of Statistics to Select a Fantasy Kicker”.)

Applying this concept results in Football Weblog’s 2014 Preseason Kicker Cheatsheet.  (See below.)  As you can see, several kickers are ranked very differently from the so-called fantasy football “experts”.  For example, most other generic “cookie-cutter” cheatsheets rank Justin Tucker, Blair Walsh, and Sebastian Janikowski quite high, while Alex Henery, Mike Nugent, and Graham Gano are low on the totem pole.  Time will tell the accuracy of these numbers, but I’ll put my money on the science of statistics rather than gut feelings or past history.

The list is ordered by how kickers grade out using the Football Weblog system.  For your reference, the number in parenthesis is the ‘average draft position’ (ADP) that kickers are taken in most fantasy drafts.  The number at the end of each entry indicates the kicker’s bye week.  Players in green and yellow are for team owners with less trusting souls.  Kickers in green are players to target if you’re looking for kickers that are ranked high by both the fantasy football “experts” and by the Football Weblog system – the safest picks.  Kickers in yellow are also sound picks, but on a lesser level.

  1. (—) Brandon McManus/Matt Prater DEN/4 (Prater suspended.  Returns week 6.  Prater great kicker to stash if you have roster space.)
  2. (17.12) Shayne Graham NO/6
  3. (15.02) Mason Crosby GB/9
  4. (11.09) Stephen Gostkowski NE/10
  5. (14.04) Steven Hauschka SEA/4
  6. (—) Nate Freese DET/9
  7. (—) Cody Parkey PHI/7
  8. (14.09) Phil Dawson SF/8
  9. (—) Mike Nugent CIN/4
  10. (17.09) Matt Bryant ATL/9
  11. (—) Graham Gano CAR/12
  12. (18.06) Robbie Gould CHI/9
  13. (16.09) Adam Vinatieri IND/10
  14. (21.11) Shaun Suisham PIT/12
  15. (16.02) Dan Bailey DAL/11
  16. (19.09) Nick Novak SD/10
  17. (—) Cairo Santos KC/6
  18. (20.10) Greg Zuerlein STL/4
  19. (—) Kai Forbath WAS/10
  20. (13.10) Justin Tucker BAL/11
  21. (—) Josh Brown NYG/8
  22. (—) Chandler Catanzaro ARI/4
  23. (—) Randy Bullock HOU/10
  24. (22.11) Caleb Sturgis MIA/5
  25. (—) Dan Carpenter BUF/9
  26. (—) Ryan Succop TEN/9
  27. (18.04) Blair Walsh MIN/10
  28. (—) Billy Cundiff CLE/4
  29. (22.06) Nick Folk NYJ/11
  30. (—) Connor Barth TB/7
  31. (19.06) Sebastian Janikowski OAK/5
  32. (—) Josh Scobee JAC/11 (Quadriceps injury – avoid)

 

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